TL;DR: Windows 10 Extended Security Updates were always a temporary fix, not a permanent solution. With ESU ending in October 2026, businesses still running Windows 10 are closer to a hard deadline than many realise. And with PC hardware prices already rising sharply — driven by the AI-led memory shortage — the case for planning ahead is even stronger. Here's what that means in practice, and why leaving it any later makes things significantly harder.
____________________
Still running Windows 10 because it hasn't caused you any problems?
It's a reasonable position — up to a point.
If your business enrolled in Microsoft's Extended Security Updates (ESU) programme after Windows 10 reached end of standard support in October 2025, things probably do feel stable. The machines boot up, the software runs, the updates come through. Nothing is obviously broken.
But that stability has an expiry date, and it's closer than it might feel.
ESU was designed as a short-term bridge — a way to buy time while businesses planned their next move. It was never intended as a destination. And when that bridge reaches its end in October 2026, Windows 10 stops receiving security patches entirely.
No updates. No fixes. Nothing.
The numbers are telling
What's striking is just how many devices are still running Windows 10 despite the deadline being well publicised. Even in markets where end-of-support timelines are widely understood, millions of PCs haven't made the switch.
Most of that data reflects home users, but the pattern in business isn't much different. Familiarity and the perception of "still supported" are powerful reasons to delay — even when the clock is ticking.
Microsoft hasn't helped matters. The same notification prompting users about end of support also makes ESU enrolment effortless: a single click, accept the terms, and the warning goes away. For a lot of people — and a lot of IT decision-makers — that feels like the issue has been handled.
It hasn't. It's been deferred.
Why this is a business risk, not just a technical one
Once October 2026 passes, any device still on Windows 10 is running software with known vulnerabilities and no mechanism to address new ones as they emerge.
From a purely operational perspective, that's a problem. But the implications stretch further.
Cyber insurance policies, industry compliance frameworks, and the expectations of clients and suppliers are increasingly built around the assumption that businesses run supported software. An unsupported OS doesn't just create a security gap — it can create a coverage gap, a compliance gap, and a reputational one too.
Two options, and neither improves with waiting
At that point, the choices are clear: upgrade to Windows 11, or replace the hardware.
The complication is that not every machine currently running Windows 10 will be eligible for a Windows 11 upgrade. Some won't meet the hardware requirements. Others might technically qualify but will need configuration work or performance reviews before the switch is viable.
For those that do need new hardware, timing matters more than usual right now. As we covered late last year, PC prices are already climbing — driven by an AI-led memory shortage that has pushed component costs sharply higher, with industry analysts warning that further increases are likely through 2026 and beyond. Businesses that delay replacement decisions aren't just running out of time on Windows 10; they may also find themselves paying considerably more for the same hardware the longer they wait.
The businesses that leave this until Q3 2026 tend to face the same set of problems: rushed procurement decisions, disruption to staff, and costs that could have been spread more sensibly over a longer timeline.
ESU should be a plan, not a pause
If your business is currently relying on Extended Security Updates, that's not necessarily a problem — but it should be part of a documented exit strategy, not an indefinite holding position. The question to be asking now isn't "are we covered?" but "what's the actual plan when this ends?"
October 2026 will arrive regardless. The difference is whether you're ready for it or scrambling.
If you're not sure which of your devices can make the jump to Windows 11, or whether you're quietly heading towards a last-minute hardware crisis, now is a sensible time to get a proper picture of where you stand.
We can help you work through that - get in touch.